It really doesn't matter whether you are playing longshots or favorites. The idea is to turn a profit at this game. We tend to treat this game as some kinda lottery where you expect to win a lot with very little investment. Wrong concept in my opinion. Horse racing should be treated just as any other business. You gotta invest money to make money in this business. If your'e playing even money favorites it only takes to hit 2 outta 3 to turn a 33% profit. Thats a handsome ROI for any business. This profit can even swell depending on the rebates you are getting. You gotta have patience of a Tibetan monk though. Those favorites I mentioned don't have to be on the same day. They can be spread over several days if need be.
If a horse you figure will lay over the field and win by 2 lengths or more has a 90/95% chance of winning the race and his true odds come postime should be 5 cents on the dollar. If said horse is going off at say 80 cents on the dollar he is considered to be a big overlay as he is going off at 16 times your going rate.
How do you relate a horse's chances of winning a race to the odds he should be going off at? Thats a good question. I wrote an article on the subject some 6/7 years ago. This article has been a sticky at Hoberz's forum for the last 2/3 years and can be read there. If you are not a member of his forum you can read this article by clicking on the link below.https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/20434256/Making%20your%20own%20Odds%20line.doc